Schock polling well, campaign says
A recent poll shows state Rep. Aaron Schock easily leading the field of three candidates seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. House seat from the 18th Congressional District, Schock's campaign said Friday.
But the campaign of one of his rivals says its polling doesn't show Schock as far ahead.
The Schock poll of 300 likely Republican primary voters, done Tuesday and Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Va., showed Schock with 58 percent to 14 percent for Jim McConoughey, 4 percent for John Morris and 23 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5.66 percentage points.
When asked how strongly they are committed, 35 percent said they definitely will vote for Schock, with 3 percent definitely backing McConoughey and 1 percent committed to Morris.
"I tell most incumbents that you want to be at 30 percent or higher as an incumbent on a committed vote," said Glen Bolger, partner and co-founder of the polling firm. "So for an open-seat candidate in a three-way primary to be at 35 percent, it just underscores how strong Aaron's numbers are."
Howver, Matt Bisbee, campaign manager for McConoughey, said a poll of 400 people done for the McConoughey campaign more than a month ago -- Nov. 13 and 14 - showed a closer race.
Bisbee did not provide detailed results of that poll, but said it was done during a controversy over an early Schock proposal to possibly sell nuclear arms to Taiwan if China didn't back the United States in its policies toward Iran. Schock later said he had "overstated" his idea.
In a head-to-head matchup between candidates, Bisbee said, Schock was "well below 50 percent," while McConoughey was "slightly above 20 percent" and Morris was in single digits.
That poll was done by Victory Enterprises, a company for which Bisbee works.
"The numbers put forth by the Schock campaign are certainly not consistent with what we are seeing in our research," Bisbee said.
Steven Shearer, Schock's campaign manager, said the polling firm Schock used is a "gold standard" company well known in Washington. Victory Enterprises, of Davenport, Iowa, is much less known, Shearer said.
Even if Bisbee's numbers are right, Shearer said, that still could mean a 20- to 25-point lead for Schock.
"I'll settle for that," he said.
Bolger, in a conference call with reporters Friday, said a slight increase in negative feelings about Schock may be the result of stories critical of him, but Bolger said Schock's positives have grown more.
In August poll, Bolger said, Schock had 59 percent name recognition in the district, with 49 percent of those who knew him having favorable impressions. In the new poll, 86 percent of respondents knew of Schock, and the opinion split was 64 percent favorable and 4 percent unfavorable.
"I don't know that it can go much higher than 64," Bolger said. "I mean, that's an incredible number."
Ryan Steusloff of the Morris campaign said Morris' broadcast ads will begin in January for the Feb. 5 primary. He said he thinks Morris' conservative message is resonating with voters.
When asked about criticism Schock recently received from the incumbent, retiring U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Peoria, Bolger said, "One negative story or one critical story isn't really enough to make a difference."
Bernard Schoenburg can be reached at (217) 788-1540 or bernard.schoenburg@sj-r.com.