Pressure growing to approve casinos
The Rev. Richard McGowan, a Boston College economist and expert on the gambling industry, doesn't agree with everything about Gov. Deval Patrick's plan to legalize casinos.
But he also doesn't think lawmakers will be able to resist it.
"They're going to have to find revenues some place," said McGowan, referring to the state's dismal financial status. "There's going to be major pressure on the Legislature to (approve casinos)."
McGowan believes moral objections about casinos will be trumped by the promise of big bucks and new jobs.
The governor says the casinos would generate 20,000 jobs and $400 million in annual revenue.
Massachusetts residents are generally supportive of casinos, according to two recent surveys, suggesting that constituent attitudes won't be a major deterrent for lawmakers.
One poll, from the Center for Policy Analysis at UMass-Dartmouth, suggests that 55 percent of residents support Patrick's plan to license three casinos.
A poll from Boston-based Mass Insight Corp. found that 59 percent of residents backed the plan.
Worker unions, which are pushing hard for casinos and appeared in force at Tuesday's Statehouse hearing on gambling, could help sway some lawmakers as well. Unions typically give large amounts of money in campaign contributions.
Standing in the way of casinos are several high-profile House lawmakers.
They include Speaker Sal DiMasi, who determines when hearings and votes are scheduled in the House, and Rep. Dan Bosley, House chairman of the Joint Committee on Economic Development and Emerging Technologies, a committee which will review the governor's casino proposal.
Both lawmakers could do their best to block the legislation, said Clyde Barrow, a gambling researcher at UMass-Dartmouth.
"But I think there'll be a higher price to pay for doing that than in the past," Barrow said.
Senate lawmakers, meanwhile, appeared poised to approve the legislation based on their past support of expanded gambling.
Still, the controversy over casinos proves there is no sure bet when a casino plan might be signed into law - or in what form.
McGowan believes the governor may have to settle for two casinos, not three, due to concerns about over-saturating the market.
Under a different scenario, the Mashpee Wampanoag tribe might open a casino in Middleboro that doesn't follow the state process, meaning that Massachusetts might end up with a total of four casinos.
Some indications suggest the Middleboro casino is well-positioned to open, regardless of what the Legislature does.
Gary Garrison, a spokesman for the federal Office of Indian Affairs, said recently that even if casinos remain illegal, the Middleboro facility would be able to offer casino-style table games because those games are legal during "casino nights" in Massachusetts.
The Middleboro casino could also feature a type of slot machine, known as "bingo slots," that aren't outlawed in the state.
But what the Mashpee tribe, and its investors, really want is to negotiate a compact with the governor allowing them to open the state's only casino. In exchange, the state would get some part of the casino's revenues.
The tribe would also need the compact in order to offer "class III" slot machines, which are the biggest moneymaker in casinos.
In addition, federal approvals are necessary to convert the Middleboro property slated for the casino into sovereign, tribal land.
If the approvals are granted as quickly as the tribe hopes, construction of the casino could start by 2009, and it could open by 2011.
The timetable for state-licensed casinos is no faster.
Patrick has pinpointed 2012 as the opening date for three casinos, one each in the southeastern, western and greater Boston regions of the state.
Expected competitors for the southeastern region casino license are the Raynham Park dog track; a group seeking to build a casino on the New Bedford waterfront, and the Plainridge Racecourse, a harness racing facility in Plainville.
Kyle Alspach can be reached at kalspach@enterprisenews.com.
The Enterprise