NASCAR rail: A look at Checker Auto Parts 500k
At a glance
WHERE: Phoenix International Raceway, Avondale, Arizona
WHEN: 3 p.m. ET
BROADCAST: ABC, live on Sirius satellite radio, channel 128
THE LOWDOWN: At the beginning of the Chase, many predicted this would be the season when a driver could not use a single mulligan and win the title. Not only will that be the case, but the champion is going to have to have a near perfect record to take the NASCAR Nextel Cup trophy home. To overcome the 30-point deficit, Jeff Gordon will need to run the table in terms of victories and still hope that Johnson finishes outside the top five.
PREVIOUS 5 WINNERS:
2006: Greg Biffle
2005: Greg Biffle
2004: Greg Biffle
2003: Bobby Labonte
2002: Kurt Busch
LAST WEEK'S WINNER: JIMMIE JOHNSON
In 2004, Johnson won four races at Lowe's, Martinsville, Atlanta and Darlington along with a runner-up finish in the season finale. Three of his victories came in consecutive weekends, and yet he lost the championship by eight points. He lost by that small margin to Kurt Busch because he finished outside the top 30 in two events in the opening weeks of the playoffs. At Texas, Johnson earned his third consecutive victory of the 2007 Chase, only this time he has swept the top 15 during the playoffs. He is still in a vulnerable position because his teammate Gordon has been almost as bulletproof. NASCAR wanted to reward victories, and these two drivers have won the last five straight.
1. Jimmie Johnson
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 6.8
The Chase format certainly seems to favor Johnson. He's not only qualified for each of the four playoffs, he's won a race each year and with three victories in a row in 2007, he's poised to win the big prize again. Last year, he won a single race, but made up for that with four second-place finishes in the last six weeks.
2. Jeff Gordon
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 5.5
If someone had told Gordon at the end of the regular season he would have two victories, a worst finish of 11th and an average finish of 4.6 in the first eight races of the playoffs, he would probably have assumed he would have the points lead. This year is going to demand perfection to win the Cup.
3. Clint Bowyer
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 20.5
Last week, fans saw the first chink in the No. 07's armor. A loose wheel ultimately cost Bowyer two laps, and he was never able to overcome the deficit. Now 181 points out of the lead, Bowyer has to hope that Johnson finishes that badly in both of the remaining races if he hopes to win the Cup.
4. Kyle Busch
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 18.0
Which Busch is going to show up this week? In his rookie season, Busch finished eighth at Phoenix in the spring and won the fall race. Last year, he finished in the 30s twice, but he rebounded for another top-10 this spring. With three top-fives in the last four events this season, look for the stronger Busch.
5. Carl Edwards
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 11.7
Despite getting caught in an accident not of his making at Kansas, Edwards showed a lot of strength during the Chase by sweeping the top 15 in the remaining races. Fate is a harsh mistress, however, and last week a freak occurrence with a chain that holds up the sway bar cost him another strong run.
6. Tony Stewart
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 10.5
In another year, a driver might still have a shot at winning the Cup after two disappointing finishes. Johnson nearly won in 2004 after finishing 37th and 32nd, and he won last year with a 39th and 24th. This year, Stewart has to hope Johnson finishes last in the remaining races to have a mathematical chance.
7. Jeff Burton
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 10.2
At least Stewart has a mathematical chance. From Burton back through the field, the remaining Chasers are racing for a victory and pride. The driver of the No. 31 has a shot at both; he's a flat-track master who once won a 300-lap race at New Hampshire by leading every single lap of competition.
8. Kevin Harvick
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 9.7
Last year, Harvick won both the Busch and Cup races during the spring. He finished second in the Busch race last fall before completing the Cup season sweep with another flat-track win. This spring, he finished ninth in Busch and was 10th in Cup, so how he runs on Saturday will predict Sunday.
9. Kurt Busch
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 12.2
Busch won the spring 2005 race at Phoenix, and that was his fourth straight top-10 there. Fortune turned sour for him quickly. When the series returned that fall, he was fired from Roush Racing after an altercation with local law enforcement, and he has only one top-10 since.
10. Matt Kenseth
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 21.8
After finishing outside the top 25 in four consecutive races, the old Kenseth is back. Like the Energizer Bunny, he keeps going and going. He never seems to make a lot of noise in the opening laps of a race, but more often than not he's in the top 10 at the end. His last three efforts have all been top-fives.
11. Denny Hamlin
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 13.3
Through a series of misfortunes and mistakes, Hamlin has finished outside the top 10 in six of the eight Chase races. Even on the flat one-mile oval of New Hampshire, he could only manage a 15th, but if his luck is going to turn around, Phoenix is the type of track where that will happen.
12. Martin Truex Jr.
Three-year average finish at Phoenix: 18.0
Truex wasn't very strong at Phoenix this spring, with only a 20th-place finish, and in fact he's failed to crack the top 10 in Arizona in a three-race career. Back-to-back top-fives on the sister track in New Hampshire this year should give his fans a reason to be hopeful, however.
Average finish on short, flat tracks
Last three years
(Phoenix, New Hampshire and Martinsville)
Driver Avg. Finish Attempts
Jeff Gordon, 6.00 18
Jimmie Johnson, 7.67 18
Tony Stewart, 9.61 18
Denny Hamlin, 10.38 13
Kevin Harvick, 13.06 18
Jeff Burton, 13.17 18
Mark Martin, 13.21 14
Matt Kenseth, 14.28 18
Ryan Newman, 14.39 18
Carl Edwards, 14.78 18
Kyle Busch, 14.94 17
Dale Earnhardt Jr., 15.06 18
Kasey Kahne, 17.06 18
Kurt Busch, 18.06 18
Bobby Labonte, 18.33 18
Martin Truex Jr., 18.64 11
Greg Biffle, 19.06 18
Clint Bowyer, 19.67 12
Juan Montoya, 19.80 5
Ricky Rudd, 20.91 11
Jamie McMurray, 21.44 18
J.J. Yeley, 22.58 12
Sterling Marlin, 23.13 16
Tony Raines, 23.31 13
David Ragan, 23.50 6
Casey Mears, 24.50 18
Joe Nemechek, 24.61 18
Reed Sorenson, 24.64 11
Brian Vickers, 24.89 18
Kyle Petty, 25.35 17
Dale Jarrett, 25.44 18
Scott Riggs, 25.83 18
Elliott Sadler, 25.83 18
Dave Blaney, 26.47 17
Johnny Sauter, 26.56 9
Ken Schrader, 28.50 16
David Stremme, 28.64 11
David Reutimann, 29.20 5
Robby Gordon, 30.06 18
Michael Waltrip, 30.28 18
Jeremy Mayfield, 30.31 16
David Gilliland, 30.75 8
Paul Menard, 31.40 5
Bill Elliott, 32.75 4
Ward Burton, 37.63 8
Mike Skinner, 38.00 2
Kevin Lepage, 39.20 15
John Andretti, 40.20 5
A.J. Allmendinger, 40.40 5
,
Average finish during the Chase:
Jeff Gordon, 4.6
Jimmie Johnson, 5.3
Clint Bowyer, 7.8
Carl Edwards, 13.5
Kyle Busch, 14.3
Tony Stewart, 15.0
Jeff Burton, 16.4
Kevin Harvick, 16.4
Kurt Busch, 18.1
Matt Kenseth, 18.5
Denny Hamlin, 20.6
Martin Truex Jr., 21.0