Major Ohio flooding appears unlikely

The flood waters are rising.

But "how high?" is the question.

Emergency Management planners in Southern Illinois are concerning themselves with that question at present.

Nobody is holding their breath, hanging on to their phones or watching their computers for the latest federal readings of flood waters.

But they do know what the general situation is.

Allan Ninness, Saline County Emergency Management Coordinator, said Monday, "It takes a huge river event to back up waters to the point where they effect Saline County. It is a timing thing. In 2005 and 2011 we had the conditions that created our local floods."

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency flood buyout program is helping to get people off the flood plain," said Ninness. The county started application to join that program in 2011 and only the most stalwart holdouts have refused to enter it.

This year, although no one claims to know the future, the consensus seems to be that there will be no "perfect storm."

Emergency planner Steve Galt of Gallatin County said, "In 2011 it got to 57 feet at Old Shawneetown.

When it hits 50 feet we start losing major roads and some structures. I pulled a report off this morning (Monday) that said the levee at Old Shawneetown was at 34 feet.

"I do not at this time think that we will have a major event. However, the Ohio is a deeper river than the Mississippi and there is heavy snowfall east of us into New York state where the Ohio headwaters are located near Olean, New York. So if it gets real warm, who can say? We are really most concerned with rainfall and melting in that area upstream. Local rainfall is not as much a concern to us."

The entire Ohio River drainage area is what Galt is concerned with.

"Louisville got 14-16 inches of snow the other day."

That still does not worry Galt.

"Right now it looks manageable," he said.

So, although sandbags and shovels are good to have any year along Midwest rivers, this year they may not get a workout.

But no one knows the future.