Around the NFL: Which teams have a chance to win the Super Bowl?

Half the NFL is fretting over what must be done to reach the playoffs.

The second half of that thought: If you're not the Patriots or Colts - or maybe the Steelers, Cowboys or Packers - what's the point? Even if you get out of the regular season alive, you're dead.

Here's the point: Often enough to inspire hope for this year's second wave of playoff contenders, huge upsets bite a presumed invincible in the booty.

Look no further than the 2001 incarnation of the franchise nobody can beat in 2007.

New England got to the 10-game milepost of the '01 season at 5-5, then the Patriots got hot down the stretch and won their last six. They caught some snowblind luck in a playoff win over the Raiders but were presumed doomed heading into the AFC title game at Pittsburgh.

The Steelers were 14-3 on the season after blowing away defending Super Bowl champ Baltimore, 27-10, in the playoffs.

Getting to a Super Bowl never seemed easier than when the Steelers had a home game against Bill Belichick's shaky outfit.

Don't let the fact Kordell Stewart was Pittsburgh's quarterback get in the way of a good story.

The Patriots weren't supposed to win at Pittsburgh - or in Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams - but they did.

Romeo Crennel was the Patriots defensive coordinator then. Now, as head coach of the Browns, he has something hopeful he can share if his team falls to 5-5 with a loss at Baltimore on Sunday.

Most of the time, though, the teams that took no prisoners in the regular season weed out the 10-6 types early in the playoffs.

A look at the regular-season records of Super Bowl teams of the last 10 years (Super Bowl winners listed first):

2006: Colts (12-4), Bears (13-3).

2005: Steelers (11-5), Seahawks (13-3).

2004: Patriots (14-2), Eagles (13-3).

2003: Patriots (14-2), Panthers (11-5).

2002: Bucs (12-4), Raiders (11-5).

2001: Patriots (11-5), Rams (14-2).

2000: Ravens (12-4), Giants (12-4).

1999: Rams (13-3), Titans (13-3).

1998: Broncos (14-2), Falcons (14-2).

1997: Broncos (12-4), Packers (13-3).

Moral of the story: If you're team comes out of this weekend at 5-5, don't sweat it. But don't lose again.

The next big thing

Less than 22 months removed from winning a Super Bowl, Pittsburgh looms as the most serious threat to the Patriots run at perfection.

"It's gonna be neat to see them play and watch what happens," said Browns tight end Steve Heiden, who has faced both teams.

The Patriots are one of the most hyped teams in history. But over-hyped?

"With their record? No, they're not overhyped," Browns running back Jamal Lewis said. "They're not ... at all. They're a great team that plays fundamental football and doesn't make mistakes. When they're not successful at that, that's when they will lose a game."

Everyone agrees New England is a complete team. Is Pittsburgh?

"Oh, yeah," Lewis said. "They've got a formula: Run the football. Play defense.

Patriot, ex-patriot

At 34, Mike Vrabel is having a career year. He has 8 1/2 sacks in nine games, having combined for nine sacks over the previous two years. It's still hard to believe the Steelers didn't see enough to beg him to stay after his 1997-2000 run in Pittsburgh.

At 35, Willie McGinest hasn't kept his juice like Vrabel. In his next-to-last last game with the 2005 Patriots, McGinest set an NFL playoff record with 4 1/2 sacks against Jacksonville. In 19 games with the Browns, McGinest has four sacks.

Hole in the draft

No team has had more first-round hits than Baltimore.

First-round Baltimore picks who are still on the team and have been to multiple Pro Bowls include Jonathan Ogden, Ray Lewis, Chris McAlister, Ed Reed, Todd Heap and Terrell Suggs.

The fact the Ravens are 4-5 and have lost three straight games underscores what it means to hit on a quarterback.

The Ravens took a stab at Chris Redman (Round 3, 2000). When he didn't pan out, they shot higher for Kyle Boller (Round 1, 2003).

Letting Derek Anderson (Round 6, 2005) get away to and develop in Cleveland must be painful.

At this point, former Ohio State star Troy Smith (Round 5, 2005) is just a project.

Extra points

- The Chiefs are refusing to disclose the nature of Larry Johnson's foot injury, but the franchise running back is saying he thinks he'll play again in 2007. On Monday, Johnson will turn 28, often a November kind of time in a workhorse back's career.

- It's not quite as simple as saying rookie Round 1 pick Marshawn Lynch is outdoing the man he replaced in Buffalo. Yes, he leads Willis McGahee 751 yards to 749, but McGahee's per-carry average is 4.3. Lynch's is 3.8.

- It's fair to talk about former No. 1 pick David Carr in a Ryan Leaf vein now that the Panthers have named 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde as today's starting quarterback rather than a healthy Carr. It's a long drive from Carr to Testaverde for draft analysts - they were No. 1 overall picks 15 years apart.

Reach Repository sports writer Steve Doerschuk at (330) 580-8347 or e-mail steve.doerschuk@cantonrep.com