Bob Tremblay: Republicans could win White House in 2008
One would assume the party responsible for starting a war based on erroneous information would have absolutely no chance of winning the upcoming presidential election.
One would also assume the party responsible for waging this war as ineptly as humanly possible would have absolutely no chance of winning the upcoming presidential election.
One would furthermore assume that the party responsible for running up a massive deficit thanks to said war would have absolutely no chance of winning the upcoming presidential election.
One would finally assume that a party responsible for appointing incompetent people to cabinet positions and electing morally bankrupt people to Congress would have absolutely no chance of winning the upcoming presidential election.
One would assume incorrectly. The party that has underperformed in nearly every possible political arena not only has a chance of winning the upcoming presidential election, it could easily win the upcoming presidential election.
How is that possible? Are the American people that incredibly stupid? Are the American people that ideologically warped? Is the Democratic Party that pathetically feeble? The answer to all three questions seems to be yes.
Looking at the political landscape right now, it appears the Democrats should triumph with ease. An unpopular president, an unpopular war. The Democrats control both houses in Congress. The donkey party should be hee-hawing all the way to the White House.
But a funny thing could happen on the way to the forum. If the surge in Iraq proves effective, the Republicans will have a powerful card to play in defense of the war. Americans may hate wars, but they hate losing wars even more. The Republicans will also pull out their trump card - the fear factor - and slap that on the table, too. The Democrats will be portrayed as quitters, cowards, unpatriotic and the appeasement party - think Neville Chamberlain without the British accent. Vote Democrat and Osama bin Laden will be blowing up your day-care center.
More good news comes the Republicans way on the economic front. The deficit may be massive, but it's shrinking and should shrink further, according to projections from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Vote Democrat and the party will tax and spend you into fiscal oblivion. The tax-and-spend shtick still sticks despite the fact that Republicans have been spending with reckless abandon for years.
If turning around a disastrous war, no matter how slight, and boosting the economy, no matter how slight, aren't enough to give Republicans cause for optimism, there are the Democrats themselves. This is the party that lost to George W. Bush not just once but twice, and even the most fervent Republican would agree that Dubya doesn't exactly represent the party's best and brightest. Don't expect the GOP candidates to be invoking his name during the presidential campaign.
The two Democratic front-runners, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, will beat whomever the Republicans nominate, my Democratic friends say. I disagree. I believe that Clinton is a lightning rod for loathing not seen on the U.S. political firmament for decades. Is it her personality? Is it her politics? Is it her marriage to the GOP's bogeyman? Yes to all three and that makes for a pretty thick animosity stew. Even without all those negatives, there are plenty of people who just don't want to see a woman as president, just as there are plenty of people who don't want to see a black man as president.
On talk radio recently, the subject was how women shouldn't even be allowed to vote because they typically vote for Democrats. They're too emotional, you see, and the Democrats appeal to those emotions with their pro-child policies. Those darn kids. Men, of course, are more rational. People actually believe this bunk.
Another day the subject was how Obama couldn't be elected because his middle name is Hussein. Whoa, we can't have a man with an Arabic name in the White house. Long live sexism and racism.
One can only hope talk radio appeals to the lunatic fringe of the Republican party, especially when you consider it employs such megalomaniacs as Michael Savage.
Actually, neither political party seems to have the confidence of the American people. According to a survey conducted by the Rasmussen Reports, people identifying themselves are Republicans and Democrats have decreased - Republicans from 37.3 percent during the 2004 election to 30.8 percent in May - an all-time low; Democratic affiliation, meanwhile, dropped from 38 percent in December 2006 to 36.3 percent in May.
As a result, the number of people not affiliated with either major party has jumped to 32.9 percent - an increase of nearly 9 percent since the 2004 election and an all-time high, according to Rasmussen. That means there are more politically unaffiliated people than Republicans.
But before Democrats rejoice, the report can easily be interpreted to indicate that Americans didn't vote so much for Democrats in 2006 as against Republicans. Independents and the moderates of both parties are clearly fed up. The big question is which presidential candidate will get their support. Democrats will push pulling out of Iraq and health care reform. Republicans will push staying in Iraq until the insurgents are defeated or at least contained. They'll also appeal to right-wingers with anti-immigrant, anti-gay marriage and anti-abortion platforms. Can't go wrong there.
Yours truly believes former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will get the GOP nod. He's good-looking, he's rich and he'll say anything to get elected. In the flip-flopping department, he makes Sen. John Kerry look like a rank amateur. The other candidates don't exactly create a buzz.
Under normal conditions, the GOP candidate wouldn't stand a chance, but these aren't normal conditions. It's no revelation that the 9/11 attacks changed the American mind-set. The outrage and patriotism that swept the country still reverberates. At the time, George Bush could have said WMDs were in Canada and Congress would have sanctioned bombing Toronto.
With this in mind, the Democrats would be wise to take a strong stand against al Qaeda. Negotiating with murderous madmen is neither a good idea nor likely to work. Al Qaeda must be eradicated. Of all the many failures of the Bush presidency, the most glaring has to be the decision to focus our forces on a man who had nothing to do with 9/11. As a result, Saddam Hussein is dead and bin Laden, the man who was responsible for 9/11, continues to make videos proclaiming death to all who are not Islamic fundamentalists.
The facts are indisputable. The war was started based on false information. The war has been conducted horribly. The costs in terms of human life and expense have been catastrophic. Should U.S. voters reward the party responsible with this debacle by electing its candidate to the presidency? It appears to be a no-brainer, but that's the scary part. Intelligence and common sense have a habit of taking a leave of absence when a dissatisfied electorate enters a voting booth.
Bob Tremblay can be reached at 508-626-4409 or by e-mail at btremblay@cnc.com.