College Football Nation: Boy, were the preseason polls wrong

There was supposed to be a neat little round-robin at the end of the season.

Three teams, all ranked up high the preseason, get together on three successive weekends next month. That was when the Big Ten title was supposed to be decided. First up Ohio State hosts to Wisconsin on Nov. 3, then the Badgers head to Michigan the following weekend, and finally the Wolverines host the Buckeyes in their annual season-ending war - The Game.

Looking at schedules in August, projecting the season based on beliefs held back then, all three figured to be undefeated. If one could survive the round-robin - if the three didn't beat each other up - that one would be a pristine 12-0, BCS Championship Game material.

This was also supposed to be the season Ohio State took a step backward.

The Buckeyes lost six starters on offense, including Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Troy Smith and wide receivers Ted Ginn Jr. And Anthony Gonzalez - both of whom were drafted in the first round last spring.

Of the three supposed Big Ten title contenders, Ohio State figured to be the worst. The conference would really be decided Nov. 10 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, the prevailing thinking went.

Turns out that was dead wrong.

Wisconsin and Michigan were severely overrated - Michigan was No. 5 preseason and Wisconsin No. 7. But the Buckeyes were clearly underrated at No. 11 in the Associated Press poll and No. 10 in the USA Today poll. Ohio State survived the loss of all those offensive stars and are not only the class of the Big Ten but has moved up to No. 3 in the polls and are a serious threat to play for the national championship for the second straight year.

"As we move forward, the thing we've got to make sure we do is continue at the pace we've been improving because as you look out ahead, that's what it's going to take," said Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. "We said last week that we'd been making solid steps one step at a time and that we understood that the Purdue step (last week) was going to be a little bit steeper step and we made that step and we've got to continue that momentum as we go. That begins with practice and film preparation."

The offense, despite its losses to graduation, has been decent. It's averaging a shade less than 34 points per game. The running attack in particular has been solid, led by Chris Wells. The passing game, meanwhile, is averaging just 211 yards per game with senior Todd Boeckman playing quarterback, but because each of Ohio State's six games have been pretty lopsided he hasn't been asked to do too much yet.

"I'm impressed with their willingness to work hard on the task at hand," Tressel said about his team in general. "We haven't had every practice perfect. We haven't had everything done as well as we think we're capable of doing it, but I think they want to, and I think we do a pretty good job of correcting things when we do err. I think they want to get things done the right way and I guess I reserve my being impressed until I see how we are at the end of the year."

The real reason the Buckeyes are 6-0, the reason they're a threat to play in New Orleans in early January, is their defense.

To date, it's the best in the country.

Ironically, just a year ago, while the offense was putting up points in chunks and blowing out most opponents, the defense was almost entirely new. Only two of 11 starters were back from the year before. Now, those players who were first-year starters last season are veterans, and they're playing like it.

The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing 7.2 points per game. Only once - at Washington - have they allowed more than 10, and that includes last Saturday when they shut out a Purdue team for 59 minutes that had averaged 45.4 points per game through five weeks. They're second in the country allowing 210 yards per game, behind only to LSU.

"Our defense does an excellent job preparing," said Tressel. "Our defensive staff ... do a great job of preparing, our players do a great job of practicing, and then they continue to prepare. They continue to study the film. They continue to try to really understand the plan that we have and I think they go into the game, because of their preparation, with confidence."

He added, "We have talented kids. But we have to make sure we continue that type preparation."

Ohio State's formula - decent offense combined with dominating defense - is one that has worked many times before. Alabama and Michigan won national championships that way in the '90s. In 2002 the Buckeyes had the No. 41 scoring offense in the country ... and the No. 2 scoring defense.

They won it all.

Now just because Ohio State is rolling while Michigan and Wisconsin have struggled, that does not mean the Buckeyes will waltz to the Big Ten title. Both still pose threats, and both Penn State - which despite its losses can shut teams down - and suddenly scary Illinois also remain.

But through half the season, the team that figured to be the also-ran in the neat little round-robin next month has been the best of the bunch.

And already up to No. 3, it might just be a second straight title game appearance for the Buckeyes.

What We Learned

Just as it was taken for granted that there would be a spectacular round-robin at the end of the season in the Big Ten featuring three teams with not just conference title dreams on the line but national championship dreams as well, it was a certainty that Southern Cal would run the table.

The Trojans were an overwhelming preseason No. 1 in both major polls.

Well, USC struggled.

First there was an uninspiring 38-10 win over Idaho, and then the Trojans were in a fight for a while against a Nebraska team that has proven a disappointment. A blowout of Washington State looked nice, but then USC nearly got beaten by a Washington team that was no match for Ohio State.

It appeared USC wasn't, in fact, great. It appeared USC wasn't a lock to run the table. It appeared USC was vulnerable.

Then came Stanford, the Cardinal beating the Trojans in an upset every bit as big as Appalachian State's over Michigan - Stanford was a 41-point underdog, the biggest ever to win. It's proof that USC is nowhere near as good as it was cracked up to be coming off its rousing Rose Bowl win over the Wolverines last January and bringing 10 starters back on the defensive side of the ball.

"We move forward like we've done in the past when you have a big-time win or a big-time loss," said USC coach Pete Carroll. "You can't have it carry over to the next week, so we work real hard to ... move on. That's what we've done with this one.

"The main thing is to get everyone on the same page so they know what happened, and then turn your attention to the next game."

Now fortunately for USC - inexplicably - the Trojans got much more favorable treatment from voters than other teams that have suffered stunning upsets.

Unlike Michigan, which dropped from No. 5 right out of the polls after its opening day loss, the Trojans fell only to No. 7 in the USA Today poll, which is the one of the two major polls that factors into the BC formula. And they fell a far shorter distance than unbeatens that recently lost to quality opponets, like West Virginia and Wisconsin.

If they win at both California and Oregon later in the season, they might just sneak back into the national title race. But for that to happen USC has to get a lot better than it's been in any game so far this season.

"It might surprise you, but we never talk about that," Carroll said. "We're playing for our conference championship - that's all we control. At the end of the year, depending on how it all works out, if they give you the big vote you get to go. ... You've got to win your conference first and then at the end of the year, if you're in good enough shape depending on how everyone else does, you might have a chance to play for (the national championship).

"It's not an issue right now."

The defense that was supposed to carry USC through any tough days is giving up 21 points per game against teams with an aggregate record of 11-17. And though the rushing offense has been good, quarterback John David Booty - a Heisman contender at the start of the season - has a broken finger on his throwing hand and has already thrown eight interceptions. Mark Sanchez may start in his place this week.

USC, simply, hasn't lived up to expectations. It's got two weeks - home against Arizona and then at Notre Dame - to get things in order. Then the Trojans are at Oregon and Cal two of the next three weeks, and a season that started with great expectations could suddenly turn ugly.

Game of the Week

Unlike the past couple of weeks when there were a bunch of games featuring ranked opponents, this week there are only two.

One features top-ranked LSU, and it's really the first in a three-part series worth keeping an eye on. After winning a monstrously emotional game Saturday night in Death Valley against defending national champion Florida, the Tigers are at No. 17 Kentucky tomorrow, then host No. 22 Auburn - which beat Florida in Gainesville - next weekend and then are at Alabama.

Any one of the three could trip the Tigers.

But the best game of the weekend isn't LSU and Kentucky, it's Missouri at Oklahoma.

The Tigers - the ones from Columbia, not Baton Rouge - are undefeated and have moved up to No. 11 in both polls. They have one good win, but no great ones. They beat an Illinois team that has proven pretty good, and last week crushed Nebraska.

A win over Oklahoma would establish Missouri as the obvious team to beat in the Big 12 North, a potential BCS bowl team.

"Good teams do that week in and week out," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said of the win over Nebraska. "You don't play one game like that and all of a sudden you've arrived. We certainly haven't arrived. We just need to keep getting better every week, that's what we're trying to do. And obviously the challenge this week is as great as any we'll have this season."

Oklahoma, meanwhile, was No. 3 in the polls just a few weeks ago and along with USC and LSU one of the three teams rolling toward an unbeaten season. But then came a trip to Boulder, Colo., and a last-second loss to the Buffaloes. Now the Sooners are merely trying to claw their way back up. If they win the rest of their games, they could wind up a one-loss team in the BCS Championship Game.

"We play a really good Missouri team that's coming in undefeated," said Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops. "They had a great game against Nebraska, so we've got our work cut out for us."

If I Had A Ballot ...

1. LSU (6-0): The next three opponents - Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama all pose threats.

2. California (5-0): After a week off, the Bears get four potentially easy games before USC comes calling.

3. Ohio State (6-0): A trip to Penn State the last weekend of October is the next test, a defense that could keep the Nittany Lions close.

4. Oregon (4-1): Washington State should be a good cure for the ills the Ducks feel after losing to Cal.

5. Boston College (6-0): It's not Notre Dame this week that poses the threat, it's Virginia Tech 12 days later on a Thursday night.

6. South Florida (6-0): A bit of a letdown against Florida Atlantic after the emotional win over West Virginia was not surprising.

7. Oklahoma (5-1): A win over Missouri tomorrow puts the Sooners on track for a run back toward the top.

8. South Carolina (5-1): A loss at LSU is the only blemish, and the Gamecocks should be 7-1 before a trip to Tennessee.

9. West Virginia (5-1): The Mountaineers took care of business and bounced back from their loss to South Florida with an easy win over Syracuse.

10. Cincinnati (6-0): Seventh in the nation in scoring offense, fifth in scoring defense - impressive.

Eric Avidon is a Daily News staff writer. He can be reached at eavidon@cnc.com or 508-626-3809.