Racing Rail: The Talladega contenders

Jimmie Johnson

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 19.2

Johnson came up a bumper shy of winning at Talladega last year. Unfortunately, it was the front bumper of then-teammate Brian Vickers that sent him careening into the side of Dale Earnhardt Jr. This spring, he finished second to Jeff Gordon in the Aaron's 499 and needs one more position to complete his revenge.

Jeff Gordon

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 18.2

Gordon passed Dale Earnhardt Sr. for all-time victories with 77 at this track in the spring, and he's been stout on the restrictor-plate SuperSpeedways all season. Unfortunately, his last two fall races at Talladega have ended with results outside the top 35, and the threat of the "Big One" crash is always looming.

Clint Bowyer

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 36.7

Bowyer narrowly skirted disaster at Dover two weeks ago to finish 12th, and he's one of less than a handful of Chase contenders who have not yet experienced trouble. He may have to use his mulligan this week, however; his best result at Talladega is only 35th.

Tony Stewart

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 10.3

If the rain had lasted a little longer at Kansas last week, Stewart would have been the winner of the LifeLock 400. Instead, he was collected in a crash less than half a lap after the race went back to green, and ultimately he fell 117 points behind Johnson. It's enough to make him let an expletive fly.

Kevin Harvick

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 9.8

Harvick is a much better plate racer than he is generally given credit. He entered the Pepsi 400 at Daytona this summer with a four-race top-10 streak that included a victory in the Daytona 500. Unfortunately, that came to a violent end in Florida, and he finished 34th in that race.

Kyle Busch

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 30.8

Busch has a pair of runner-up finishes on the restrictor-plate SuperSpeedways in the past two years, but both of those came at Daytona. On this 2.66-mile course, his average result is worse than 30th, and he used up his mulligan for the Chase when he got punted out of the top five by Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Kansas.

Carl Edwards

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 23.0

Edwards is another driver who really needed some good luck to go his way at Kansas, because it certainly hasn't at Talladega. In 12 career starts on this track, he's blown two engines, retired because of an accident twice and been slowed by crash damage on five other occasions.

Martin Truex Jr.

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 20.0

If Truex gets the good DEI engine this week, he could be a threat to win his second NASCAR Nextel Cup race, but first he'll have to make it to the end of the event unscathed. He's been slowed or stopped by crash damage in half of his restrictor-plate races.

Kurt Busch

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 5.5

Of all the Chase contenders, Busch may have the best opportunity to finish up front. He's been consistent and fast at Talladega with a current six-race top-10 streak that has ended in an average result of 5.5. He's been almost as strong at Daytona, finishing third in the past two Pepsi 400s.

Jeff Burton

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 20.5

Burton is becoming the forgotten man in the Chase, and the UAW-Ford 500 is unlikely to restore his status. Dating back to 2002, he's recorded only one SuperSpeedway top-10 each year, and he already has his single triumph for 2007 after finishing third in the Daytona 500.

Matt Kenseth

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 8.7

On most tracks, Kenseth is like the Energizer bunny - he just keeps going and going until the end of the race finds him near the front. Talladega can smell desperation on a driver, however, and Kenseth enters with back-to-back finishes of 35th in his past two races.

Denny Hamlin

Three-year average finish at Talladega: 21.3

If you had to identify a weakness in Hamlin's armor at the start of the season, the plate tracks would have been it. In his career, he has never cracked the top 15 in Cup competition at Daytona or Talladega, and he's likely to leave Alabama more frustrated than ever and even further behind in the points.

Gratuitous Stat of the Week

Laps in the Top 10, Talladega last three years

Rank Driver Laps in Top 10 (L3 Yr) % Possible Laps

1. Kurt Busch 745 65.4% 1,140

2. Jeff Gordon 729 63.9% 1,140

3. Jimmie Johnson 697 61.1% 1,140

4. Matt Kenseth 693 60.8% 1,140

5. Jamie McMurray 630 55.3% 1,140

6. Brian Vickers 454 47.9% 948

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 515 45.2% 1,140

8. Tony Stewart 445 39.0% 1,140

9. Elliott Sadler 434 38.1% 1,140

10. Jeff Burton 411 36.1% 1,140

11. David Ragan 68 35.4% 192

12. David Reutimann 63 32.8% 192

13. Kevin Harvick 365 32.0% 1,140

14. Ryan Newman 338 29.6% 1,140

15. Michael Waltrip 268 28.3% 948

16. Sterling Marlin 303 26.6% 1,140

17. Denny Hamlin 150 26.4% 568

18. Carl Edwards 299 26.2% 1,140

19. Martin Truex Jr. 230 24.2% 952

20. Greg Biffle 272 23.9% 1,140

21. Scott Riggs 263 23.1% 1,140

22. Joe Nemechek 249 21.8% 1,140

23. Casey Mears 237 20.8% 1,140

24. Robby Gordon 189 20.0% 946

25. David Gilliland 73 19.2% 380

26. Kasey Kahne 202 17.7% 1,140

27. David Stremme 98 17.3% 568

28. Kyle Busch 152 16.0% 952

29. Mike Wallace 114 15.0% 760

30. Reed Sorenson 75 13.2% 568

31. Juan Montoya 25 13.0% 192

32. Dale Jarrett 142 12.5% 1,140

33. Jeff Green 102 8.9% 1,140

34. Ward Burton 34 8.9% 380

35. Johnny Sauter 33 8.5% 386

36. Bobby Labonte 74 6.5% 1,140

37. Clint Bowyer 34 6.0% 568

38. J.J. Yeley 42 5.5% 758

39. Paul Menard 21 5.5% 380

40. Dave Blaney 38 5.0% 760

41. Jeremy Mayfield 42 4.4% 952

42. Tony Raines 32 4.2% 758

43. Ken Schrader 39 4.1% 948

44. Boris Said 11 2.8% 386

45. Kevin Lepage 6 1.6% 378

46. Kyle Petty 6 0.5% 1,140

Driver 3 Yr Avg. Finish Attempts

Kurt Busch 5.50 6

Matt Kenseth 8.67 6

Kevin Harvick 9.83 6

Tony Stewart 10.33 6

Dale Jarrett 12.83 6

Jamie McMurray 13.50 6

Jeff Gordon 18.17 6

Jeremy Mayfield 18.40 5

Scott Riggs 18.83 6

Ryan Newman 19.00 6

Jimmie Johnson 19.17 6

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 19.50 6

Kasey Kahne 19.50 6

Jeff Green 19.83 6

Martin Truex Jr. 20.00 5

Tony Raines 20.25 4

Elliott Sadler 20.33 6

Jeff Burton 20.50 6

Denny Hamlin 21.33 3

Bobby Labonte 21.33 6

Brian Vickers 21.33 6

Joe Nemechek 21.67 6

J.J. Yeley 22.75 4

Carl Edwards 23.00 6

Robby Gordon 23.83 6

Casey Mears 24.83 6

David Stremme 25.00 3

Michael Waltrip 25.50 6

Dave Blaney 26.40 6

Sterling Marlin 28.00 6

Ken Schrader 28.17 6

Kyle Petty 28.33 6

Greg Biffle 29.33 6

Mike Wallace 29.50 6

Reed Sorenson 30.00 3

Johnny Sauter 30.33 3

Kyle Busch 30.80 5

Clint Bowyer 36.67 3

Kevin Lepage 41.00 6

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