A Cardinals turnaround is not probable -- but also not impossible

A Cardinals turnaround

is not probable -- but

it's also not impossible

ST. LOUIS - It's the annual All-Star break, and despite Sunday's 7-0 win over the San Francisco Giants, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in third place in the NL Central, 7½ games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and five games under .500 at 40-45.

"We're five under .500, so we did not play good baseball enough," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa summarized the first half of the season. "There were periods where we didn't swing very well, and we had periods where we didn't pitch very well, especially in the starting rotation. Our bullpen's been consistently a plus."

It's been more than a year since St. Louis posted a winning monthly record during the regular season. But if the Cardinals learned anything from last-year's mediocre 83-win regular season -- and their ensuing World Series championship last October - it was this:

Never, ever give up.

At least not until it's mathematically impossible to make it.

Last year the Cardinals were pretty good during the first half of the regular season and pretty bad during the second half. Perhaps this season will be a reversal of that trend. Perhaps not.

But it's certainly far too early to throw in any towels. Especially in the nondescript NL Central, with the probability of several key Cardinals returning to action after the All-Star break.

"The potential on this club's unbelievable," says infielder/outfielder Scott Speizio, himself a recent victim of a strange infection in one of his fingers.

"I think that the bright side is that we know it's there, and there's like this big upside to this team because we know we're gonna get guys like Chris Carpenter back. We got Yadi (Yadier Molina) back, and we'll get (David) Eckstein and Jimmy Edmonds.

"We do have some starting pitchers that (have) come out of the bullpen and are learning," Speizio conceded. "But they've shown some incredible games and some incredible ability. "So there's a lot of upside. And we're not that far back."

Major league baseball history is froth with fairytale finishes, comebacks from clubs much farther out of first place - and with much less time remaining to close the gap - than the current Cardinals.

Conversely, there have been many first-place teams with much larger leads - and much greater talent than the Milwaukee Brewers -- that have fallen from their first-place perches before postseason play commenced.

When it comes to reaching the postseason, La Russa obviously knows what it takes. This year he knows exactly what it will take for his team to turn things around in the second half.

He knows it will take a lot.

But he also knows, while it will be far from easy, it is not an impossibility for this club to accomplish it. If his players can keep their heads in every game. And in every facet of the game.

Like offense, which has mysteriously disappeared far too often this season but has shown hopeful recent flashes from relative newcomers Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan.

"Hopefully, we can just start stringing together better and better at-bats, game to game to game," La Russa said. "If we do that, then there's no complaint.

"That's who we are. I just have a lot of confidence in our hitters, when I see 'em at their best. And when it's less than their best, we need to get to that level, 'cause that's our only chance."

And defense, traditionally a St. Louis strong suit but recently -- So Taguchi's three-run dropped fly Friday and Aaron Miles' three-error seventh-inning meltdown Saturday -- just wishful thinking.

"You know, when you play defense, you've got to be in it totally," La Russa emphasized. "When you see (outstanding plays), it shows you the guys are ready to play. When we don't play defense like that, it's strange, and it's hard to figure. We're a good defensive club."

And, of course, pitching. Healthy pitching. Especially healthy starting pitching, which has been at a real premium this year with both Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter on the disabled list virtually all season and Braden Looper on the 15-day DL recently.

Entering Thursday night's game against Arizona, no Cardinals starting pitcher had registered a victory since June 23, when Adam Wainwright was a winner. Wainwright snapped that negative streak Thursday with seven innings of shutout pitching before yielding two runs in the eighth en route to a 3-2 Cards win.

At least Wainwright, a converted closer and postseason hero last season who has evened his record at 7-7, has been healthy all season.

"You can't play guys that are hurt," La Russa observed. "Whatever you get (from fill-ins), you get."

What the Cardinals got twice last week was another positive pitching sign. Six quality innings on Monday from Braden Looper, who allowed Arizona four hits and three runs in his first start after 15 days on the disabled list because of a shoulder strain.

And then six more strong innings on Saturday, when Looper allowed three runs before he and the Cards came unglued in that disastrous three-error seventh.

Loopper got a no decision and a loss to show for those two games, but both he and La Russa feel they were performances to build upon -- hopefully for the second half.

"You've got to give him a lot of credit," La Russa stated. "He pitched very efficiently, very effectively."

As did Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday, blanking the Giants for five innings on two hits. And Carpenter, in his second Class A rehab stint Sunday in Florida, yielded two hits and no runs in three promising innings.

So there have been some recent positive signs after a half-season of injuries and numerous problems.

"You're looking at (the Cardinals) taking a serious competitive hit, and maybe getting to this point 15-20 under," La Russa said, "so to me the best part of it is that these guys hung in there.

We got enough wins, some way, somehow, that I feel like we have a chance."

It probably will take everything mentioned above to rebound in the second half. Efficient, effective pitching. Heads-up defense. Consistently intelligent offense.

And, no doubt, plenty of luck.

After the Cardinals' disappointing first half, such a scenario may not seem probable.

But after last October, it certainly doesn't seem impossible.

Hal Pilger can be reached at 788-1548 or hal.pilger@sj-r.com.