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The Daily Register - Harrisburg, IL
Beau Dodson's weather analysis for the southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.
December 22nd-24th: A possible winter storm to track
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About this blog
By Beau Dodson
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Dec. 22, 2012 5:25 a.m.

December 22nd-24th



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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...



Saturday:  A cold start to the morning - sunny sky conditions. 

Highs: 40-45 degree range

Wind: Southwest winds at 5 mph

Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals:
  0

Confidence in this forecast is high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here 



Saturday night:  Clear and cold.  
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s.

Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals: 0"


Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday:  Not quite as cold - an increase in clouds.
Highs:  In the 48-54 degree range 

Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability -0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high

 

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy a chance for a shower
Lows: in the 38-44 degree range

Wind:  South winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 40% |  Rainfall totals: 0.10"


Confidence in this forecast is high 



Monday - Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers.

Highs:  in the upper 40s 

Wind: West winds at 10-mph

Precipitation probability - 60% |  Rainfall totals:  0.20"


Confidence in this forecast is high

Monday night - Mostly clear and cold.

Highs:  in the lower 30s

Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph

Precipitation probability - 0% |  Rainfall totals:  0"


Confidence in this forecast is high



Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here








This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western  Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee


HEADLINES:  We have a couple of weather systems to monitor over the next few days.  


Saturday and Sunday should be dry with no travel problems in our area.  There will be an increase in clouds on Sunday night as a weak area of low pressure passes in or near our region.  This will bring clouds and a chance for a few showers.  Temperatures should be warm enough for all of the precipitation to fall in liquid form.  We are not expecting any travel problems from the first system.  Wet roadways may slow you down just a little bit - otherwise no issues.

A more substantial winter storm will take shape on Christmas Day and continue into December 26th.  An area of low pressure will form in Texas and ride east/northeast into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.  

As this area of low pressure develops and deepens it will spread clouds and precipitation back into our region.  The precipitation may begin as a mixture of rain and sleet on Christmas evening and eventually turn to all snow by Christmas night and the morning of December 26th.

As always the exact forecast details of this winter storm are still a bit sketchy.  If the track is further north then less snow may fall - if the track is too far south then we will only have clouds and light precipitation.

Model data inidicates that a band of 3-6" of snow will be possible with this system.  The placement of that snow band is still a bit uncertain.  Strong and gusty winds will also be a concern along with falling temperatures.  If this occurs then blowing and drifting snow would also be possible somewhere in the Missouri and/or Ohio Valleys.  Again - depending on storm track.



If you have travel plans on Christmas night into December 26th then monitor the latest winter weather advisories as they are issued in the coming days.

I will probably not have a good handle on snowfall forecast totals until Monday.  As always it is going to be difficult to nail down the details until we get a little bit closer to the event.

I will keep the Facebook page updated several times per day - I will probably also post a video on the Facebook page.  

Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be colder behind the system.  This will be even more true if we have snow on the ground.  The coldest nights of the winter season, thus far, could be Thursday night.  Overnight lows well into the teens are not out of the question if  snow does fall.  

 

Another weather maker could impact the region next weekend and into the following week - tracking several possible precipitation makers.  A bit soon to make forecasts on those.  Stay tuned







Concerns center around a winter storm on Christmas night into December 26th - monitor for updates if you have travel plans.





Possibly - a winter storm may impact our region on December 25th and December 26th.  It is too soon to make an exact forecast on the eventual track of this winter storm.  Monitor updates.







The track of the winter storm on Christmas Day and December 26th - monitor updates.

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 




Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join


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The forecast for severe or extreme weather


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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.   


 

Saturday: 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits  No



Sunday:  
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No



Monday: 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  No

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  



To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here


 



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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?


Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No

Tuesday - No 

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.

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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.












What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days




The potential exists for a winter storm to impact our region on the night of December 25th into December 26th.  There could be several inches of snow and sleet in our region.  It is still too early to know the exact track of the area of low pressure.  The track of this system will be the determining factor in how much snow we receive.  Monitor updates over the coming days.
  



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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here




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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.




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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !

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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.




We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---

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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.





Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 




 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image


 



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour                period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 

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1.  Starting to look like January will be a cold one - below normal temperatures are forecast for the region.  Several precipitation events are likely over our local area during the first few weeks of January.  


  

Latest drought information:

DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 




Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here




If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.










Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site

http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site

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