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Miller: Without 'Z', Rauner just a limitless checkbook

In the end, Mike "Z" Zolnierowicz had only one choice. Gov. Bruce Rauner's top political lieutenant, the man most responsible for winning the 2014 Republican primary and the governor's former state chief of staff, had to resign late in the afternoon on Friday, July 14.

The week began with the early Monday morning firing of Richard Goldberg, Z's hand-picked successor as Rauner's chief of staff and his close friend. Rumors had circulated for months that First Lady Diana Rauner wanted him out, and in the previous few weeks it was known among a select few that the governor had been looking for a possible replacement, including a couple of people in Indiana who declined the offer.

But Z and others were caught off guard when Goldberg was abruptly fired and not offered a position in the vast campaign apparatus Z had constructed. Rauner not only made a major decision without consulting Z, his supposedly number one guy, he had also needlessly kicked Goldberg to the curb.

Goldberg's secretary was told in short order to pack up her stuff and then summarily escorted out of the building. Before working for Goldberg, she had been Z's cherished secretary. Her callous treatment was widely seen as unnecessary, as well as a direct affront to Zolnierowicz.

The governor's top staff was mainly put together by two people: Z and Goldberg. And the loudest critics in Rauner's personal inner circle of those staffers included people at the top of the Illinois Policy Institute. When Rauner's staffers were replaced by Illinois Policy Institute executives, it was seen as yet another jab at Z.

Rauner reportedly asked Z to stay on. But by Friday, when several more staffers were given the boot or resigned, it was clear to everyone that Rauner was going in a totally new direction. Rauner's campaign side and his governing side should be on the same page, Z reportedly told the governor, so he tendered his resignation. In reality, I think Z probably would've been moved out anyway by the coup plotters.

If Goldberg had been eased out in the "traditional" way, perhaps being sent to the campaign or to some other group after consultation with people like Zolnierowicz; if the rest of the staff hadn't been so shabbily treated; if the governor's office hadn't been so obviously outsourced to the Illinois Policy Institute, then Z likely wouldn't have felt the need to leave. But if the sky was green, grass might be blue.

So, what happens next? Z reportedly told the governor he was still willing to offer advice and help from the outside. He wouldn't talk at all about it to me either on or off the record except to say that he believes Rauner still has a real chance at reelection.

But Z's departure is a potential disaster for this governor. It shows great weakness, and weakness is the deadliest virus in politics. If someone as loyal as Z felt he had to leave, then what kind of person will work with Rauner now? Zolnierowicz is a lovable man with amazing skills, but who also has the ability to turn on and off the inner soul of a political killer. That combination has served Rauner well.

Z is the guy who built up the governmental and political apparatus to support Rauner. Without him, Rauner is just a limitless checkbook with a big mouth.

For the last year and a half, top Rauner administration insiders have muttered that John Tillman, who runs the Illinois Policy Institute, wanted to gain control of the governor's state office, while conservative political activist Dan Proft wanted to control the governor's campaign operation.

To their minds, Tillman "succeeded" with Rauner's staff purge because several of Tillman's own staffers were brought on board. And the Monday after Z quit, one of Proft's people, Matthew Besler, was given the helm of the governor's political operation.

It's a whole new world, campers.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.