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The Daily Register - Harrisburg, IL
Beau Dodson's weather analysis for the southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.
December 24th-26th: Tough forecast - winter storm forming
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About this blog
By Beau Dodson
Recent Posts
Dec. 23, 2012 12:01 a.m.



December 24th-26th:



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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...



Monday:  Mostly cloudy with some morning light showers or patches of drizzle. 

Highs: 45-50 degree range

Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 40%  | Rainfall totals:
  0.05"-0.10" 

Confidence in this forecast is high

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here 



Monday night:  Partly cloudy and cool.  
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s.

Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 0%  | Rainfall totals: 0"


Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday:  Increasing clouds and cool.  A chance for showers during the afternoon hours - a chance for snow in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Mostly rain in KY and TN.  Check your pinpoint local forecast on this link

Winter storm watch for parts of the area - for details click here and then click on your county - the blue area is the winter storm watch.
Highs:  In the 38-42 degree range 

Wind:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"

Confidence in this forecast is high

 

Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely - thundersnow over parts of the area.  Best chance for snow will be along and west of the Mississippi River near the KY/MO border and the northeast into southern Illinois.  Heavy snow likely - blowing snow - near blizzard conditions possible in some counties - especially over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.  Rain and thunderstorms likely over west Kentucky and west Tennessee.  Rain may change to snow over far western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee after midnight. Check your pinpoint local forecast on this link
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s over parts of southeast MO and southern IL - lower to middle 30s in west KY and northwest TN.

Winter storm watch for parts of the area - for details click here and then click on your county - the blue area is the winter storm watch. 

Wind:  North winds at 20-30 mph with gusts above 40 mph

Precipitation probability - 10
0% |  Rainfall totals: 0.50"

Confidence in this forecast is high 



Wednesday - Snow - heavy snow across portions of the area - blowing and drifting snow.  Check your pinpoint local forecast on this link -  Any rain left over will change to snow.  Snow accumulation likely - heavier the further west you go in the area - lighter the further east you go in the area. 


Winter storm watch for parts of the area - for details click here and then click on your county - the blue area is the winter storm watch.

Highs:  in the lower to middle 30s in snow covered areas - middle to upper 30s elsewhere 

Wind: West winds at 10-30 mph with gusts above 40 mph

Precipitation probability - 100% early in the day - 80% late morning into mid afternoon and 40% late afternoon into evening |  Rainfall totals:  0.50"-1.00" (most of that between midnight and 9 am).


Confidence in this forecast is high



Wednesday night - Some snow flurries possible - cold.

Highs:  in the teens - areas with snow could be in the 8-12 degree range - areas outside of the heavier snow will be in the upper teens.

Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph

Precipitation probability - 20% early |  Rainfall totals:  0"


Confidence in this forecast is high





Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here








This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western  Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee


HEADLINES:  Difficult forecast - I would recommend you check your exact location forecast -   


To check your pinpoint forecast - go here and enter your zip code or city followed by a comma and your state - click here

The forecast will vary tremendously across our region.   

An area of low pressure will move across southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday night.  This will spread copious amount of moisture into our area.  The precipitation will begin on Tuesday afternoon across the southwest portion of our region.  First showing up on radar in the Missouri Bootheel and southeast Missouri.  It will then spread northeast into the rest of the area.

Rain may reach west KY between 4 pm and 6 pm.  Rain will reach west TN a bit earlier (especially the further south you travel).

Precipitation will begin as snow across parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Right now there are still some questions on the exact track of the area of low pressure and the 850 mb low.  One wants to be about 50-150 miles west/north of the 850 mb low in order to experience significant snowfall.  The models are showing that low passing near west KY on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  The further south the low tracks then the more likely snow will occur in southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.

We are confident that snow will occur in southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.  Our confidence falls off over southeast Illinois - near the Ohio River and down into western Kentucky.

Winds will be strong and gusty with this storm - this will cause a lot of blowing snow.  Mainly over parts of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.  See the winter storm watch for details.

Winter storm watch details - click on your county - the blue area is a winter storm watch 

Another tricky forecast for our region.  Location location location - some areas will pick up 6-8" or more of snow and other areas will only receive a dusting.  The best chance for heavy snow will be over parts of southeast MO into southern IL - see my Facebook discussions for details. 

Rain will end as all snow in our region on Wednesday morning.  Most areas should see a least a dusting of snow - questions remain on exact totals in western Kentucky - southeast Illinois - southwest Indiana. 







Concern centers around the winter storm.  Travel problems are likely over parts of our area on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Check road conditions.  The further north and west you are in the area the more likely you see significant snow.  The further east and southeast then the less snow.





If you have travel plans on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning then monitor the latest forecasts.  A significant winter storm will move across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday night.  Snow likely over parts of our region.






The track of the winter storm on Christmas Day and December 26th - monitor updates.




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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here


We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 




Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms.   Click here to join


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The forecast for severe or extreme weather


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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.   


 

Monday:  
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice. 


Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits  No



Tuesday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.  Heavy snow over parts of the area on Tuesday night


Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  Yes - thunderstorms possible area wide on Tuesday night - thundersnow likely in some areas.



Wednesday:  
Severe weather is not anticipated.  Snow likely in the area.

Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits?  Yes - lightning/thunder possible Wednesday morning between midnight and 4 am.

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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  



To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here


 



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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?


Monday - No

Tuesday - No  

Wednesday - No



To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here 
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national        map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.

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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.












What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days




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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here




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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.




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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !

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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.




We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---

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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.





Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in! 




 CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image


 



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour                period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here 

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here 

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1.  Starting to look like January will be a cold one - below normal temperatures are forecast for the region.  Several precipitation events are likely over our local area during the first few weeks of January.  


  

Latest drought information:

DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE 




Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here




If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week!  For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.










Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here 

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site

http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site

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